The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-08 16:07 · graded in public
Wrong · score 18%
directionUP
confidence68%
reasoning85% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade18%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE -2.3% vs SPY +1.5% — XLE trailed SPY by 3.9% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call — was Correct 0.89]
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →