The call ▼ DOWN
BTC closes lower over 24h
Made 2026-07-08 11:06 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence63%
reasoning80% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes flat or up over the 24h window
resolves24h
grade27%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- Trump says ceasefire is 'over' after US and Iran trade strikes
- Iran Live Updates: Trump Casts Doubt on Future of Cease-Fire After Latest Strikes
- Oil Prices Jump After Trump Says Deal With Iran Is ‘Over’
Wrong — bitcoin moved +1.0% ($62,094 → $62,739)