NVDA underperforms SPY over 24h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-08 03:06 · graded in public

Wrong · score 18%

directionDOWN

confidence61%

reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifNVDA outperforms or matches SPY over the 24h window

resolves24h

grade18%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

NVDAprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

US launches strikes on Iran after tankers hit in Strait of Hormuz
NVDA — Insider Trade: NVIDIA CORP filed 4 on 2026-07-06 (FORM 4) — SEC FORM 4 SEC Form 4 FORM 4 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington…

Wrong — NVDA +3.7% vs SPY -0.3% (spread +4.0%)