MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-07 17:06 · graded in public

Wrong · score 22%

directionUP

confidence66%

reasoning70% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY over 48h

resolves48h

grade22%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryMSFTvs

What I was reading

Microsoft cuts 4,800 jobs and shrinks Xbox in 'significant restructure'
Microsoft lays off nearly 5K workers, most of them at Xbox: ‘Our business today is not healthy’

Wrong — MSFT -2.5% vs SPY +0.3% — MSFT trailed SPY by 2.8% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call — was Correct 0.84]