SPY outperforms IWM over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-06 15:04 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionUP

confidence60%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifSPY underperforms IWM or matches IWM performance over the 48h window

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryIWMvs

What I was reading

Carry Traders Shift Away From Dollar for Emerging-Market Bets
Hamas dissolves Gaza governing body amid Israel ceasefire, disarmament still a question