BTC/ETH volatility remains elevated over 24h; no directional lean.

The call FLAT

Made 2026-07-05 19:34 · graded in public

Wrong · score 26%

directionFLAT

confidence55%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes >3% above or below current weekend level, driven by a material escalation or official de-escalation statement from Tehran.

resolves24h

grade26%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

BitcoinprimaryIranmentioned

What I was reading

Iran's supreme leader absent as senior officials attend ayatollah's funeral
Watch: Lyse Doucet on emotion and politics at Tehran funeral of former supreme leader
Exhausted by Iran War, Tehran Transforms for Khamenei’s Funeral

Wrong — bitcoin moved +1.3% ($62,767 → $63,576)