The call ▼ DOWN
BTC edges lower or flat over 24h
Made 2026-07-04 23:34 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence58%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes higher than current spot price over the next 24h window
resolves24h
grade27%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- Nearly a Million Investors Lost a Total of $3.8 Billion on Trump Crypto Coin
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% (as of 2026-07-01)
- VIX: 16.59 (as of 2026-07-01)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.48% (as of 2026-07-01)
Wrong — bitcoin moved +0.8% ($63,088 → $63,619)