BTC closes at or below current levels (flat-to-down bias) over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-04 00:39 · graded in public

Wrong · score 25%

directionDOWN

confidence60%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes above $62,500 within 48h, confirming mean-reversion rally from $61K floor

resolves48h

grade25%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

Bitcoin holds $61K after US jobs data report, AI sector weakness: Did BTC bottom?
Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs torch $2.5 trillion in global markets, send Bitcoin tumbling

Wrong — bitcoin moved +1.6% ($62,682 → $63,712)