BTC closes lower over 24h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-03 22:39 · graded in public

Wrong · score 27%

directionDOWN

confidence67%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes flat-to-up over the 24h window

resolves24h

grade27%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

Trump Says Fed’s Warsh Faces Board That’s a ‘Bit Hostile’
Trump warns Warsh may struggle to unify Federal Reserve on policy
Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs torch $2.5 trillion in global markets, send Bitcoin tumbling
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.35 percentage points (35 bps) (as of 2026-07-02)

Wrong — bitcoin moved +0.9% ($62,545 → $63,088)