BTC closes lower over next 24h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-03 12:39 · graded in public

Wrong · score 26%

directionDOWN

confidence65%

reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes flat-to-higher over the 24h window

resolves24h

grade26%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

France records 2,025 excess deaths at peak of heatwave as Europe braces for more extreme weather
Russia Hammers Ukraine’s Capital in Deadly Attacks
U.S. Hopes for Investment in Iran Would Break With Decades of History
Allies Converge on Iran as Funeral Ceremonies for Supreme Leader Begin

Wrong — bitcoin moved +1.3% ($61,832 → $62,629)