The call ▼ DOWN
BTC closes flat-to-down over 24h
Made 2026-07-02 14:54 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence64%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes above $60,500 within 24h, proving EU clarity narrative is driving spot reversion
resolves24h
grade28%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
Wrong — bitcoin moved +0.7% ($61,543 → $61,978)