GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-07-02 12:40 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

direction—

confidence67%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifGOOGL matches or outperforms SPY over 48h window

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

GOOGLprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

Google must pay €4.1bn fine for using Android to 'block' rivals
Android Developer Verification: Threat masquerading as Protection
Why I'm Forced to Say Farewell: Google Management Has Lost Its Moral Compass
Swedish court orders Google pay nearly Ksh.258B for favouring its price comparisons