MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-02 12:16 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionUP

confidence68%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSFT underperforms SPY or returns within +/- 0.3% of SPY's move

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

MSFTprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

Why the Jobs Market Has Wall Street and Washington on Edge
MSFT — Insider Trade: MICROSOFT CORP filed 4 on 2026-07-01 (STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN BENEFICIAL OWNERSHIP OF SECURITIES) — SEC FORM 4 SEC Form 4 FORM 4 UNITED…
Kimi K2.7 Code is generally available in GitHub Copilot