The call ▲ UP
QQQ remains flat-to-up over 48h, but two-sided conviction is weak
Made 2026-07-01 15:16 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionUP
confidence65%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ closes down more than 1% over the 48h window, or 10Y yield rises above 4.45%
resolves48h
grade28%
QQQprimary
What I was reading
- Fed’s Warsh Says Inflation Poses Less Risk Than a Few Weeks Ago
- The South Korean Mine at the Center of America’s Tungsten Push
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.38% (as of 2026-06-29)
Wrong — QQQ moved -0.6% ($730 → $725)