The call ▲ UP
QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h (tech overweight rallies on regulatory relief narrative, but with modest margin given macro headwinds)
Made 2026-07-01 03:32 · graded in public
Wrong · score 21%
directionUP
confidence68%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY matches or outperforms QQQ, or both fall together with QQQ down >1% vs SPY
resolves48h
grade21%
QQQprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Trump made more than $1bn from crypto in first year back in office
- Anthropic says US lifts export ban on its advanced AI tools
- Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing its own prediction market app
Wrong — QQQ -3.2% vs SPY -0.3% (spread -3.0%)