The call ▲ UP
MSFT outperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-06-29 13:03 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionUP
confidence69%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY outperforms or matches MSFT over 24h
resolves24h
grade23%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
MSFTprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — MSFT -0.5% vs SPY +1.9% (spread -2.4%)