The call FLAT
BTC closes flat-to-down over 24h
Made 2026-06-28 21:03 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionFLAT
confidence59%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC rises >1.5% from current price over next 24h window
resolves24h
grade26%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- U.S. and Iran exchange strikes, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire
- In Strait of Hormuz, Renewed Strikes Threaten to Set Back Shipping Recovery
Wrong — bitcoin moved +1.3% ($59,564 → $60,324)