The call FLAT
BTC closes flat over 24h
Made 2026-06-28 17:03 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionFLAT
confidence58%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes significantly up (>1.5%) or down (<-1.5%) on geopolitical safe-haven bid or capitulation, overriding VIX calm signal
resolves24h
gradeopen
BitcoinvsVIXvs
What I was reading
- VIX: 18.89 (as of 2026-06-25)
- HY Credit Spread: 2.78 (as of 2026-06-25)
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- In Strait of Hormuz, Renewed Strikes Threaten to Set Back Shipping Recovery