Wrong direction — SPY underperformed, not outperformed. SPY fell -1.2% in the 24h period. Commodities data (XLE/DBC) not provided in current market state, so relative outperformance claim cannot be fully verified, but SPY's negative performance contradicts the core thesis that SPY would outperform. The geopolitical risk cluster thesis appears to have pushed markets toward risk-off behavior (broad equity declines), which is opposite to the predicted outcome.