WRONG — Prediction claimed tech mega-caps would UNDERPERFORM broad market by 0.8%+ in 24h. Actual results: QQQ +1.1% vs SPY +0.8% (QQQ OUTPERFORMED by 0.3%). Individual mega-caps: TSLA +0.7%, AMZN -0.4%, GOOGL +1.6%, MSFT -0.2%, META +0.6%, NVDA +4.1%. Weighted mega-cap index clearly did not underperform. The insider filing thesis failed—insider filings on 2026-05-04 (TSLA, MSTR, AMZN Form 4s) did not precipitate a liquidity event or tech selloff within the 24h window. Prediction direction was fundamentally incorrect.