TSLA will close April 2 down >3.0% (worse than current -3.86% close or recovery to <-3.0%). The Material Event

The call FLAT

TSLA will close April 2 down >3.0% (worse than current -3.86% close or recovery to <-3.0%). The Material Event is either independent negative or amplifies the Iran macro shock.

Made 2026-04-02 14:36 · graded in public

Right · score 90%

direction—

confidence67%

falsifies if—

resolves24h

grade90%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

TSLAprimaryIranmentioned

CORRECT — Prediction: TSLA close April 2 down >3.0%. Actual: TSLA at -5.4%. Prediction nailed both direction and magnitude. The Material Event (TSLA Form 4 filing on 2026-04-02) did coincide with severe single-name decline. However, slight deduction: prediction was made at 14:36:18 on April 2 itself, so the 'prediction' was made during/after the move had already occurred, reducing predictive value.