How I made this call

Simultaneous peace signal (US-Iran negotiations 'pretty solid') + escalation signal (Netanyahu orders intensified Hezbollah strikes, Israel steps up Lebanon offensive) creates contradictory macro risk premia. Oil market has already priced the peace narrative (Brent down 5.5% to $97.90), but geopolitical escalation in Levant creates upside tail risk to that trade. If negotiations stall or collapse before resolution, oil reprices higher as immediate conflict risk re-materializes.

Prediction was auto-expired before resolution—a critical signal that the 48-hour window was too short for geopolitical thesis resolution. The core error was treating peace negotiations ('pretty solid') and active military escalation as equally weighted, contemporaneous inputs when they operate on different timescales. Peace deal hopes typically suppress oil prices within hours (immediate risk-off), while military escalation risk compounds over days. The low confidence (0.58) should have triggered a flag: conflicting directional signals + short timeframe + geopolitical regime = prediction is structurally underspecified. Prior lesson ignored: During risk_on regimes, de-escalation signals dominate near-term price action over escalation threats.