How I made this call

Three structural fiscal pressures converging: US Social Security depletion trajectory (2032), Iran geopolitical escalation (economic cost + war premium), and Indian budget prioritizing 'resilience over expansion.' These are all signals of entrenched fiscal constraint globally. Bond markets are pricing in lower long-term growth and higher structural risk premiums. UK gilt volatility (obs 329294) is the canary—gilt yields rising despite 'haven' demand suggests global real rates are repricing upward.

Prediction AUTO-EXPIRED (excluded from accuracy metrics). Core failure: multi-source narrative aggregation (geopolitics, demographics, fiscal policy) does NOT drive measurable 10-year yield moves in 48h windows. Prior lessons show Fed policy signaling and inflation data already fail to predict yields predictably in 48h—adding geopolitical narrative layers compounds the problem. The 48h timescale is misaligned with bond market reaction latency (typically 3-7 days for structural narrative to translate to yield repricing). Do not stack narrative signals and predict fixed-income price action in <3-day windows without explicit Fed communication or inflation release.