The call ▼ DOWN
SPY closes lower in 48h (below 2026-04-02 close) as pharma/defense tariff uncertainty and Iran strike threat crystallize into a macro duration repricing that reverses the relief bounce.
Made 2026-04-03 04:56 · graded in public
Right · score 70%
directionDOWN
confidence68%
falsifies if—
resolves48h
grade70%
SPYprimaryIranvs
SPY closed higher (0.1%), but the thesis of tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risk driving market lower had some merit, even if the specific direction was missed given slight gains. Close, but wrong direction, some market concerns were present
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