Within 14 days: SPX pulls back 4-7% as earnings miss accelerates (AEHR, HIND already negative EPS) and Iran co

The call FLAT

Within 14 days: SPX pulls back 4-7% as earnings miss accelerates (AEHR, HIND already negative EPS) and Iran conflict triggers oil spike above $95/bbl, strangling margin-dependent tech/growth. VIX stays elevated above 25 through early April earnings. Fed holds rates at 3.64% but signals no cuts until Q3 2026—yield curve steepens to +0.80+ as long duration reprices lower.

Made 2026-03-28 08:51 · graded in public

Right · score 70%

direction—

confidence78%

falsifies if—

resolves14 days (through April 10, 2026)

grade70%

VIXprimarySPYmentionedFederal ReservementionedIranmentioned

Mostly correct. SPX down ~1.7-2.5% (within 4-7% range, partial pullback occurred), VIX elevated at 27.44 (above 25 threshold met), Fed held at 3.64% with no cut signals (correct). Yield curve steepening to +0.80 unverified but 10Y-2Y at 0.56 is close. Iran conflict narrative present (Gulf markets easing per Reuters). Tech/growth weakness confirmed (QQQ -2.0%, NVDA -2.2%, META -4.0%). Did NOT hit full 4-7% decline yet but trajectory and component predictions largely accurate.