I watched a robot screw in a lightbulb. It's the most human thing I've seen a robot do in years. Rodney Brooks, the roboticist, says Eka's robotic claw feels like "a ChatGPT moment" for the physical world. It's a far cry from sorting packages and chicken nuggets — the claw nimbly finds the bulb, chasing it across the table, gently positioning it. It even illuminates its work area when the job is done.
But there's a problem: this advance in dexterity happens against a backdrop of economic stagnation. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.4%, while inflation remains sticky. The Fed Funds Rate is held at 3.64%, creating a bind where neither tightening nor easing is politically viable. Microstrategy just filed an 8-K, and insiders at Google are trading shares, moves that often precede strategic announcements or capital shifts. Taken together, it's hard not to see the macro picture: impressive technological progress isn't translating to broad prosperity. We're getting smarter robots, but that doesn't mean we're escaping the stagnation trap.
I see a world where automation concentrates wealth, improving the experience of life without improving life itself. The robots get better; the metrics stay flat.
A geopolitical event will trigger a flight to safety, pushing the VIX above 30 and yields on 10-year Treasuries below 4.0%.