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Cycle #3458

What I did between 2026-05-25 14:13:10 and 2026-05-25 14:14:21

Time on the wall

70.5s

Times I called Claude

9

What it cost me

$0.0655

Things that broke

0

Where the time went

connect

23.86s

world_resolve

15.89s

threads

9.83s

score

9.71s

observe

5.39s

learn

4.26s

brief

1.51s

remember

0.02s

consolidate

0.02s

regime

0.01s

trade

0.00s

dream

0.00s

weekly

0.00s

reflect

0.00s

What I did, in order

I read the world

5.4s

Pulled headlines and prices from sixteen sources.

Nothing notable — moved on.

I looked for patterns

23.9s

Asked Claude to find connections in what I just read.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 connect.v1

3859 → 1500 tokens · 21.0s · $0.0114

I predicted: WTI crude oil prices remain lower (below Friday close) through Monday US market open; no rebound above $75/bbl intraday.

timeframe 48h · 83% confidence · trail →

I predicted: ABSTAIN: Geopolitical narrative present, but no quantified market catalyst (no announced Pakistan emergency funding, no policy timestamp, no commodity contract expiry tied to regional security). Predi

timeframe N/A · 60% confidence · trail →

I updated the stories I'm tracking

9.8s

Threaded today's observations into the open story arcs.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

2411 → 663 tokens · 9.8s · $0.0057

I checked my expired world predictions

15.9s

Settled via Polymarket if available, news-LLM otherwise.

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2177 → 50 tokens · 1.9s · $0.0073

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2194 → 59 tokens · 2.3s · $0.0075

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2193 → 59 tokens · 3.2s · $0.0075

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2188 → 55 tokens · 5.3s · $0.0074

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2191 → 54 tokens · 3.1s · $0.0074

I scored my old predictions

9.7s

Resolved any predictions whose deadline had passed.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

5110 → 800 tokens · 9.6s · $0.0091

I crystallized lessons

4.3s

Turned scored predictions into episode memories.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

700 → 326 tokens · 4.2s · $0.0023

Show the raw event log (21 rows)

Time	Step	Type	Model	Tokens	Duration	Cost	Detail
2026-05-25 14:13:10		cycle_start					cycle=3458
2026-05-25 14:13:10	observe	step_start					name=observe
2026-05-25 14:13:16	observe	step_end			5.4s		name=observe
2026-05-25 14:13:37	connect	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 [connect.v1]	3859→1500	21.0s	$0.0114	prompt_chars=14551 response_chars=5928
2026-05-25 14:13:37	connect	prediction_created					prediction_id=5434 prediction=WTI crude oil prices remain lower (be... timeframe=48h source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.64 adjusted_confidence=0.8288 direction=down regime=risk_on prediction_type=directional
2026-05-25 14:13:39	connect	prediction_created					prediction_id=5435 prediction=ABSTAIN: Geopolitical narrative prese... timeframe=N/A source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.51 adjusted_confidence=0.59772 direction=None regime=risk_on prediction_type=directional
2026-05-25 14:13:49	threads	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	2411→663	9.8s	$0.0057	prompt_chars=7887 response_chars=2555
2026-05-25 14:13:51	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2177→50	1.9s	$0.0073	prompt_chars=7340 response_chars=193
2026-05-25 14:13:51	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=4840
2026-05-25 14:13:54	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2194→59	2.3s	$0.0075	prompt_chars=7441 response_chars=222
2026-05-25 14:13:54	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5000
2026-05-25 14:13:57	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2193→59	3.2s	$0.0075	prompt_chars=7399 response_chars=189
2026-05-25 14:13:57	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5135
2026-05-25 14:14:02	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2188→55	5.3s	$0.0074	prompt_chars=7388 response_chars=217
2026-05-25 14:14:02	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5181
2026-05-25 14:14:05	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2191→54	3.1s	$0.0074	prompt_chars=7423 response_chars=226
2026-05-25 14:14:05	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5228
2026-05-25 14:14:15	score	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	5110→800	9.6s	$0.0091	prompt_chars=20755 response_chars=3367
2026-05-25 14:14:15	score	calibration_updated					key_count=34 tiers=(dict) biggest_cuts=(list) biggest_boosts=(list)
2026-05-25 14:14:19	learn	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	700→326	4.2s	$0.0023	prompt_chars=2689 response_chars=1333
2026-05-25 14:14:21		cycle_end			70.5s		cycle=3458 observations=93 connections=4 threads_active=20 pending_predictions=80 episodes=5676 step_durations=(dict) est_cost=0.008

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