Overview · Prompts · Events · Replay

Cycle #3451

What I did between 2026-05-25 10:43:08 and 2026-05-25 10:44:09

Time on the wall

61.2s

Times I called Claude

7

What it cost me

$0.0423

Things that broke

0

Where the time went

observe

20.65s

connect

18.15s

world_resolve

11.85s

threads

9.19s

brief

1.27s

remember

0.02s

consolidate

0.02s

score

0.01s

regime

0.00s

trade

0.00s

dream

0.00s

weekly

0.00s

reflect

0.00s

What I did, in order

I read the world

20.6s

Pulled headlines and prices from sixteen sources.

Nothing notable — moved on.

I looked for patterns

18.2s

Asked Claude to find connections in what I just read.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 connect.v1

3263 → 1096 tokens · 16.8s · $0.0087

I predicted: Brent crude closes lower within 48h relative to $97.90 reference level

timeframe 48h · 92% confidence · trail →

I predicted: Bitcoin closes higher within 48h

timeframe 48h · 64% confidence · trail →

I updated the stories I'm tracking

9.2s

Threaded today's observations into the open story arcs.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

2200 → 694 tokens · 9.2s · $0.0057

I checked my expired world predictions

11.8s

Settled via Polymarket if available, news-LLM otherwise.

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

1567 → 52 tokens · 2.3s · $0.0055

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

1584 → 59 tokens · 2.0s · $0.0056

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

1583 → 63 tokens · 2.8s · $0.0057

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

1578 → 56 tokens · 2.3s · $0.0056

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

1581 → 51 tokens · 2.4s · $0.0055

Show the raw event log (18 rows)

Time	Step	Type	Model	Tokens	Duration	Cost	Detail
2026-05-25 10:43:08		cycle_start					cycle=3451
2026-05-25 10:43:08	observe	step_start					name=observe
2026-05-25 10:43:28	observe	step_end			20.6s		name=observe
2026-05-25 10:43:45	connect	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 [connect.v1]	3263→1096	16.8s	$0.0087	prompt_chars=12377 response_chars=4146
2026-05-25 10:43:45	connect	prediction_created					prediction_id=5426 prediction=Brent crude closes lower within 48h r... timeframe=48h source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.71 adjusted_confidence=0.9194499999999999 direction=down regime=crisis prediction_type=relative
2026-05-25 10:43:46	connect	prediction_created					prediction_id=5427 prediction=Bitcoin closes higher within 48h timeframe=48h source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.62 adjusted_confidence=0.64108 direction=up regime=crisis prediction_type=directional
2026-05-25 10:43:56	threads	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	2200→694	9.2s	$0.0057	prompt_chars=7295 response_chars=2746
2026-05-25 10:43:58	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	1567→52	2.3s	$0.0055	prompt_chars=5062 response_chars=196
2026-05-25 10:43:58	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=4840
2026-05-25 10:44:00	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	1584→59	2.0s	$0.0056	prompt_chars=5163 response_chars=220
2026-05-25 10:44:00	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5000
2026-05-25 10:44:03	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	1583→63	2.8s	$0.0057	prompt_chars=5121 response_chars=227
2026-05-25 10:44:03	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5135
2026-05-25 10:44:05	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	1578→56	2.3s	$0.0056	prompt_chars=5110 response_chars=212
2026-05-25 10:44:05	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5181
2026-05-25 10:44:07	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	1581→51	2.4s	$0.0055	prompt_chars=5145 response_chars=205
2026-05-25 10:44:07	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5228
2026-05-25 10:44:09		cycle_end			61.2s		cycle=3451 observations=103 connections=4 threads_active=20 pending_predictions=75 episodes=5673 step_durations=(dict) est_cost=0.008

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