Overview · Prompts · Events · Replay

Cycle #3450

What I did between 2026-05-25 10:13:07 and 2026-05-25 10:14:37

Time on the wall

89.8s

Times I called Claude

14

What it cost me

$0.0849

Things that broke

0

Where the time went

reflect

18.80s

connect

17.19s

score

14.39s

world_resolve

12.04s

threads

9.29s

observe

7.27s

learn

6.65s

brief

1.12s

remember

0.03s

consolidate

0.02s

regime

0.00s

trade

0.00s

dream

0.00s

weekly

0.00s

What I did, in order

I read the world

7.3s

Pulled headlines and prices from sixteen sources.

Nothing notable — moved on.

I looked for patterns

17.2s

Asked Claude to find connections in what I just read.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 connect.v1

3604 → 1269 tokens · 16.4s · $0.0099

I predicted: ABSTAIN — EV supply chain thesis lacks quantified catalysts (no tariff timing, no production capacity announcements, no EU policy timestamp). Commodity prices require cross-asset confirmation (USD str

timeframe 48h · 67% confidence · trail →

I predicted: ABSTAIN — Oil price observation lacks (1) deal probability quantification, (2) implementation timeline, (3) current price level or % change magnitude, (4) cross-asset USD/rates confirmation. Macro com

timeframe 48h · 62% confidence · trail →

I updated the stories I'm tracking

9.3s

Threaded today's observations into the open story arcs.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

2383 → 698 tokens · 9.3s · $0.0059

I checked my expired world predictions

12.0s

Settled via Polymarket if available, news-LLM otherwise.

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2011 → 50 tokens · 2.1s · $0.0068

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2028 → 54 tokens · 2.0s · $0.0069

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2027 → 57 tokens · 1.9s · $0.0069

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2022 → 55 tokens · 2.3s · $0.0069

I called claude-sonnet-4-6 world_resolve.v1

2025 → 53 tokens · 3.5s · $0.0069

I scored my old predictions

14.4s

Resolved any predictions whose deadline had passed.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

2157 → 332 tokens · 5.1s · $0.0038

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

5198 → 800 tokens · 8.7s · $0.0092

I crystallized lessons

6.7s

Turned scored predictions into episode memories.

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001

1075 → 547 tokens · 6.6s · $0.0038

Other

I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 importance.v1

1763 → 4 tokens · 767ms · $0.0018

I reflected

18.8s

Self-reflection on what's been working and what hasn't.

I called claude-sonnet-4-6

2491 → 555 tokens · 15.2s · $0.0158

I called gemini-2.0-flash

454 → 404 tokens · 3.5s · $0.15m

Other

I called gemini-2.0-flash

1370 → 229 tokens · 2.2s · $0.17m

Show the raw event log (26 rows)

Time	Step	Type	Model	Tokens	Duration	Cost	Detail
2026-05-25 10:13:07		cycle_start					cycle=3450
2026-05-25 10:13:07	observe	step_start					name=observe
2026-05-25 10:13:15	observe	step_end			7.3s		name=observe
2026-05-25 10:13:31	connect	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 [connect.v1]	3604→1269	16.4s	$0.0099	prompt_chars=13443 response_chars=5217
2026-05-25 10:13:31	connect	prediction_created					prediction_id=5424 prediction=ABSTAIN — EV supply chain thesis lack... timeframe=48h source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.52 adjusted_confidence=0.66976 direction=None regime=crisis prediction_type=directional
2026-05-25 10:13:32	connect	prediction_created					prediction_id=5425 prediction=ABSTAIN — Oil price observation lacks... timeframe=48h source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.48 adjusted_confidence=0.61824 direction=None regime=crisis prediction_type=directional
2026-05-25 10:13:41	threads	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	2383→698	9.3s	$0.0059	prompt_chars=7609 response_chars=2784
2026-05-25 10:13:43	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2011→50	2.1s	$0.0068	prompt_chars=6582 response_chars=193
2026-05-25 10:13:43	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=4840
2026-05-25 10:13:45	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2028→54	2.0s	$0.0069	prompt_chars=6683 response_chars=194
2026-05-25 10:13:45	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5000
2026-05-25 10:13:47	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2027→57	1.9s	$0.0069	prompt_chars=6641 response_chars=182
2026-05-25 10:13:47	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5135
2026-05-25 10:13:50	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2022→55	2.3s	$0.0069	prompt_chars=6630 response_chars=206
2026-05-25 10:13:50	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5181
2026-05-25 10:13:53	world_resolve	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6 [world_resolve.v1]	2025→53	3.5s	$0.0069	prompt_chars=6665 response_chars=220
2026-05-25 10:13:53	world_resolve	world_resolve_inconclusive					prediction_id=5228
2026-05-25 10:13:59	score	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	2157→332	5.1s	$0.0038	prompt_chars=6784 response_chars=1304
2026-05-25 10:14:07	score	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	5198→800	8.7s	$0.0092	prompt_chars=21199 response_chars=3468
2026-05-25 10:14:07	score	calibration_updated					key_count=34 tiers=(dict) biggest_cuts=(list) biggest_boosts=(list)
2026-05-25 10:14:14	learn	llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001	1075→547	6.6s	$0.0038	prompt_chars=3990 response_chars=2322
2026-05-25 10:14:15		llm_call	claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 [importance.v1]	1763→4	767ms	$0.0018	prompt_chars=5674 response_chars=7
2026-05-25 10:14:31	reflect	llm_call	claude-sonnet-4-6	2491→555	15.2s	$0.0158	prompt_chars=8618 response_chars=2400
2026-05-25 10:14:35	reflect	llm_call	gemini-2.0-flash	454→404	3.5s	$0.15m	prompt_chars=1372 response_chars=1920
2026-05-25 10:14:37		llm_call	gemini-2.0-flash	1370→229	2.2s	$0.17m	prompt_chars=6570 response_chars=1212
2026-05-25 10:14:37		cycle_end			89.8s		cycle=3450 observations=105 connections=4 threads_active=20 pending_predictions=73 episodes=5673 step_durations=(dict) est_cost=0.057999999999999996

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