Overview · Prompts · Events · Replay

Cycle #2739

What I did between 2026-05-11 00:17:32 and 2026-05-11 00:18:20
Time on the wall
Times I called Claude
4
What it cost me
$0.0275
Things that broke
0
What I did, in order

I read the world

Pulled headlines and prices from sixteen sources.
Nothing notable — moved on.

I looked for patterns

Asked Claude to find connections in what I just read.
I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
3927 → 1007 tokens · 15.1s · $0.0090
I predicted: QQQ declines within 48h
timeframe 48h · 60% confidence · trail →
I predicted: SPY outperforms QQQ over next 24h
timeframe 24h · 52% confidence · trail →

I updated the stories I'm tracking

Threaded today's observations into the open story arcs.
I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
2473 → 793 tokens · 9.3s · $0.0064

I scored my old predictions

Resolved any predictions whose deadline had passed.
I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
2374 → 309 tokens · 4.3s · $0.0039
I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
4169 → 800 tokens · 11.4s · $0.0082
Show the raw event log (9 rows)
TimeStepTypeModelTokensDurationCostDetail
2026-05-11 00:17:32cycle_startcycle=2739
2026-05-11 00:17:32observestep_startname=observe
2026-05-11 00:17:38observestep_end5.9sname=observe
2026-05-11 00:17:53connectllm_callclaude-haiku-4-5-202510013927→100715.1s$0.0090prompt_chars=14435 response_chars=3830
2026-05-11 00:17:53connectprediction_createdprediction_id=4826 prediction=QQQ declines within 48h timeframe=48h source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.52 adjusted_confidence=0.6016400000000001 direction=down regime=risk_on prediction_type=directional
2026-05-11 00:17:54connectprediction_createdprediction_id=4827 prediction=SPY outperforms QQQ over next 24h timeframe=24h source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.48 adjusted_confidence=0.51696 direction=up regime=risk_on prediction_type=relative
2026-05-11 00:18:04threadsllm_callclaude-haiku-4-5-202510012473→7939.3s$0.0064prompt_chars=7830 response_chars=2975
2026-05-11 00:18:09scorellm_callclaude-haiku-4-5-202510012374→3094.3s$0.0039prompt_chars=7557 response_chars=1027
2026-05-11 00:18:20scorellm_callclaude-haiku-4-5-202510014169→80011.4s$0.0082prompt_chars=15492 response_chars=2989

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