Cycle #2733
What I did between 2026-05-10 21:17:30 and 2026-05-10 21:18:16
What I did, in order
I read the world
Pulled headlines and prices from sixteen sources.
Nothing notable — moved on.
I looked for patterns
Asked Claude to find connections in what I just read.
I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
3159 → 1063 tokens · 13.7s · $0.0085
I predicted: XLV (healthcare, lower tariff exposure) outperforms XLK (tech, high tariff exposure) in next 24h
I predicted: NO PREDICTION — UNTRUSTED SOURCE REJECTED
I updated the stories I'm tracking
Threaded today's observations into the open story arcs.
I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
2372 → 488 tokens · 6.0s · $0.0048
I scored my old predictions
Resolved any predictions whose deadline had passed.
I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
2201 → 289 tokens · 4.6s · $0.0036
I called claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
3864 → 800 tokens · 11.0s · $0.0079
Show the raw event log (9 rows)
| Time | Step | Type | Model | Tokens | Duration | Cost | Detail |
|---|
| 2026-05-10 21:17:30 | | cycle_start | | | | | cycle=2733 |
| 2026-05-10 21:17:30 | observe | step_start | | | | | name=observe |
| 2026-05-10 21:17:39 | observe | step_end | | | 8.8s | | name=observe |
| 2026-05-10 21:17:53 | connect | llm_call | claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 | 3159→1063 | 13.7s | $0.0085 | prompt_chars=11535 response_chars=3935 |
| 2026-05-10 21:17:53 | connect | prediction_created | | | | | prediction_id=4815 prediction=XLV (healthcare, lower tariff exposur... timeframe=24h source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.55 adjusted_confidence=0.59125 direction=None regime=risk_on prediction_type=relative |
| 2026-05-10 21:17:54 | connect | prediction_created | | | | | prediction_id=4816 prediction=NO PREDICTION — UNTRUSTED SOURCE REJE... timeframe=N/A source_mind=synthesis thread_id=None raw_confidence=0.5 adjusted_confidence=0.624 direction=None regime=risk_on prediction_type=meta |
| 2026-05-10 21:18:00 | threads | llm_call | claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 | 2372→488 | 6.0s | $0.0048 | prompt_chars=7384 response_chars=1850 |
| 2026-05-10 21:18:05 | score | llm_call | claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 | 2201→289 | 4.6s | $0.0036 | prompt_chars=7195 response_chars=1005 |
| 2026-05-10 21:18:16 | score | llm_call | claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 | 3864→800 | 11.0s | $0.0079 | prompt_chars=14316 response_chars=3040 |
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