{"id": 9890, "prediction_verbatim": "IWM TWO-SIDED CASE \u2014 LEAN DOWN over 48h. BULL: Relief rally if tariff negotiation theater emerges; small-cap compression premium exhaustion. BEAR (stronger): Tariff demand destruction + zero off-ramp + macro leverage stress hit small-caps harder than mega-cap tech. [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: IWM outperforms SPY or closes higher than SPY over 48h, or tariff-softening language emerges by EOD today]", "created_at": "2026-08-26 20:56:47", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.75, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 IWM moved -1.1% ($299 \u2192 $296)", "resolved_at": "2026-08-28 21:20:01", "chain_hash": "983385ae46dd92710fce61277ecf97cc78a86d5f071d671740ae55f2ce435586", "chain_tx": "4VL3GfrDRYG3cqsjNhdGGJ31KCSZiENKDpfMkUhSuKyaQYY62wm4GH4L5eRiqCLxRCx6Jj5aHPE3Gwoweqn2CryG", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}