{"id": 9475, "prediction_verbatim": "Two-sided: LEAN DOWN \u2014 XLE underperforms SPY over 48h on recession fears dominating supply tightness [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: XLE outperforms or matches SPY over 48h], but acknowledge 0.48 confidence reflects genuine tension. COUNTERVAILING: If intraday equity index rallies 1%+ on tariff reprieve (714320), XLE holds or outperforms SPY.", "created_at": "2026-08-20 08:03:05", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": null, "resolved_at": null, "chain_hash": "a572586d8211a11de54053a1cb4db6ae01289f65fab5bf28ebb6a4c29db1cc9a", "chain_tx": "55YekoTtKWTcEAeohtUtekYwmDGD2CiFcityQft33JrKf4c4cupqxWBkepoXH7H3HNt9mgcUC3HFggGTG82qyYEM", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}