{"id": 9460, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED: TLT faces headwinds from bond supply expansion (713548) and fiscal pressure (713532), but tariff de-escalation may support duration by reducing inflation-risk premium. LEAN DOWN: TLT underperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: TLT closes higher than SPY or outperforms its YTD volatility-adjusted range].", "created_at": "2026-08-20 03:52:27", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 missing price for a leg", "resolved_at": "2026-08-24 07:19:23", "chain_hash": "78e7349049c3824bddf2cf68373d59153e35dcb0b55a5702228b08c1d67c2746", "chain_tx": "5caJjYkQXHpzPba7ykJ5uv6dgH4VkTeE4bBcknpq69mubez2YNACS42RWnbHDvQiokXK8r5Yf36omuBk9KeCdsA3", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}