{"id": 9410, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED: XLE faces tariff-driven demand headwind (manufacturing slowdown risk from paused tariffs) vs. Iran supply premium (Hormuz security narrative). LEAN: XLE underperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: XLE outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window]. *Low conviction; if Iran escalates with NEW execution (production sanctions, military action), bearish case inverts.*", "created_at": "2026-08-19 16:40:21", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": null, "resolved_at": null, "chain_hash": "cc03b33c7d4f631665551b81bc5e8ca04ad32100e5f5cff37395e4b20a4c8998", "chain_tx": "3UdRhxyx1LPghfAnABk5R1yDuEVu9BJqJWtouDVMZFSin5pQTWJCeEFNBsrfJRxir3sPoJWFCuaNwdq99NhefQ6j", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}