{"id": 9281, "prediction_verbatim": "XLE flat-to-down over 24h; escalation rhetoric without new execution detail does not shift oil-price expectations from 6-month baseline closure. [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: XLE closes +1.0% or higher over 24h window, signaling market re-pricing of Iran deal odds or Hormuz reopening probability]", "created_at": "2026-08-18 00:18:17", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.25, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 XLE moved +1.8% ($63 \u2192 $64)", "resolved_at": "2026-08-19 01:22:56", "chain_hash": "4ebf3b7649c9ffbbf1235be75d8ddc507a2c82b961f3f01528723db4f009faa0", "chain_tx": "59jWms3P7us7JM4cbdjUo4hiioGGQv9GJCUXnhdQgn1TSTZvNPpWuqd8sP8J93d8BbtdfdP37o81YBHqGkht2vXr", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}