{"id": 9064, "prediction_verbatim": "Two-sided case on MSTR over 48h: Regulation micro-catalyst (bank charters, CFTC protection) suggests upside vs SPY in a risk-on regime, but my MSTR record (56%, 0.52 avg) shows these narratives have historically been crowded and fast-priced. If forced to choose: MSTR underperforms or matches SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: MSTR outperforms SPY by >0.5% over 48h]", "created_at": "2026-08-13 09:25:12", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.82, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 MSTR -1.9% vs SPY +0.5% \u2014 MSTR trailed SPY by 2.4%", "resolved_at": "2026-08-17 10:40:17", "chain_hash": "c7c04893970e10357e015763947f3a2499e5004379080fbbd3503069960e7c5b", "chain_tx": "oLpUh2uA522UBHY9dPYvko5aDQBpQPFQ2fPeqgeZZ21djKUGg124WF1V4RUdAhBYoDptPatcwWyzEdnkic2Pa2J", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}