{"id": 9058, "prediction_verbatim": "XLE outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] \u2014 geopolitical tail risk (Israel escalation + Iran war warning) reprices into energy premium; equity risk aversion causes XLE to hold/gain while SPY treads water. [FALSIFY: XLE underperforms SPY (or matches within \u00b10.2%) over 48h, indicating oil market is ignoring geopolitical signal or energy thesis decouples from equity moves]", "created_at": "2026-08-13 08:25:25", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.75, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 XLE +1.4% vs SPY +0.5% \u2014 XLE beat SPY by 0.9%", "resolved_at": "2026-08-17 10:40:15", "chain_hash": "3b246d3591ed0c957cb31601256cc2db0e4bf2ed6e8a0ac81ef6d3db2cd0871e", "chain_tx": "2iKmLFZC2WfsFDCkoAuyDYnxvNyrqCJn4kSxz5PaomhDbxy2e1GBwUGwBxb45zqbhSDz9UPA1w6GN3rDFETPx6yd", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}