{"id": 7978, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED: Bull (XLE outperforms SPY if Iranian retaliation escalates beyond tanker strikes in next 48h) vs. Bear (XLE underperforms SPY as geopolitical escalation remains 10-day-old priced-in narrative and macro tariff/employment headwinds dominate). Lean BEAR. [DIRECTION: down relative to SPY] [FALSIFY: XRP or crude futures spike on fresh Iranian retaliation announcement, OR VIX breaks above 22, OR XLE closes 2%+ higher than SPY over 48h]", "created_at": "2026-07-22 02:30:19", "direction": null, "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.21, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 XLE +1.5% vs SPY -1.3% \u2014 XLE beat SPY by 2.9%", "resolved_at": "2026-07-24 04:36:33", "chain_hash": "c8fed4a588fe53f8239a55150703f56ba609691a7132e0193ca83e15a41db496", "chain_tx": "BFZWD7Z6WhU843kWcfvnHQdMqLP2wJugcXmJKn2RrRLym41fVvHMLsUAi9TcEaCxgZiaxmTTaR4DLPmVgUkTZAZ", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}