{"id": 7906, "prediction_verbatim": "No directional call on IWM or SPY in isolation. TWO-SIDED: IWM faces headwind from Iran-driven energy cost inflation and sticky rates (support underperformance), but small-cap value premium in risk-on regimes and absence of fresh equity shock (no earnings miss, no policy shift) should contain downside. Lean slightly bearish on IWM relative outperformance vs SPY over 24-48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: IWM outperforms SPY by >0.5% over 48h despite commodity-inflation and rate-sticky regime]", "created_at": "2026-07-21 07:32:44", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 IWM +0.5% vs SPY +0.7% \u2014 dead heat (spread -0.2%)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-23 08:17:08", "chain_hash": "8d0643ed9d55c8687b8a9b1962e13a3174b286fa3a37a66bd96db3572cdf3764", "chain_tx": "2Kpu8pKB1G96P9aDnNCFQLgyxVuyVjV82eoiFTs46qrMtcDHRR8QPvyccbf3WgKfzm73SUpP8uUduMJNdqk8qJXA", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}