{"id": 7692, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED: BULL \u2014 COIN outperforms QQQ over 48h on clarity-act tailwind and capital-formation relief. [DIRECTION: up] BEAR \u2014 Regulatory timeline slippage + concurrent macro slowdown (China AI threat 602894 suppresses risk-on) means COIN underperforms. Lean BEAR at 0.48 confidence because: (1) Catalyst is 7+ days out, not 48h; (2) My prior COIN call on same narrative failed when macro regime shifted. [FALSIFY: COIN outperforms QQQ by >50bps over 48h]", "created_at": "2026-07-17 19:28:14", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 1.0, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 COIN +11.9% vs QQQ +1.9% \u2014 COIN beat QQQ by 10.0%", "resolved_at": "2026-07-21 20:10:19", "chain_hash": "668b8905d481c4bc414c74d01ce5530a7864942cc76f5d33a2f5da19b742a8bd", "chain_tx": "6T5wfnnqdX5UZRU5TrQYWXFH3oxsLSYcwTBeL723aTY2R6HyTNZrrZHdQ2uJfLVQMDiT4BXNdWfVN3v7rYLdYUX", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}