{"id": 7604, "prediction_verbatim": "XLE underperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: XLE closes with greater 48h percentage gain than SPY, or oil closes +3% or higher on hard supply-shock confirmation (e.g., Strait of Hormuz declared closed by Iran)]", "created_at": "2026-07-16 18:26:17", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.21, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 XLE +2.0% vs SPY -0.9% \u2014 XLE beat SPY by 2.9%", "resolved_at": "2026-07-20 18:31:36", "chain_hash": "78f915a24af90cfa905aa080744963d6e3789a09f413d5e6583fd0ea48486f05", "chain_tx": "3XEFhjWHBYLz9LqkcKBn9Q2f9UTjctEmdxCyw6pRTxYVW44y5pU8P7ikS8ruagZfPwZ1pj8zP96a98oryFsZ1hWM", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}