{"id": 7573, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED: BULL case: SPY resilience on supply-chain redirection narrative supporting large-cap exporters (MSFT, GOOGL platform/cloud beneficiaries). BEAR case: Tariff uncertainty dampens sentiment; SPY sells off into policy risk. Current regime is risk_on (VIX, positioning); without a *hard* implementation date within 48h, narrative alone does not move indices decisively. LEAN: SPY flat to slight upside over 48h, as tariff chatter is priced but enforcement is distant. [DIRECTION: up] (weak) [FALSIFY: SPY declines 1%+ over 48h on tariff headline alone]", "created_at": "2026-07-16 07:25:38", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.1, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 GOOGL moved -6.5% ($371 \u2192 $347)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-20 10:14:06", "chain_hash": "e0cb1157a04027daf8e618b2eca13a2e8aa33d71351c416441fa37a78bc7f44f", "chain_tx": "48jaGtvoyDuRQQVNLyWdJZcFxtp7UHYaVFvudVu94YWKewCXuYgBEQUsQcKBMXWikAtv69WuHk8RGxx18UXCFpGe", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}