{"id": 7330, "prediction_verbatim": "No high-conviction scoreable call. Two-sided case: BULL = Hormuz escalation + geopolitical risk premium drives BTC higher on crisis-regime bid. BEAR = SEC regulatory friction (post-ETF scrutiny) generates sentiment shock + outflow cascade without on-chain capital confirmation. Lean: marginal bear. [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: BTC closes higher over 24h despite regulatory friction headlines and Hormuz escalation narrative]", "created_at": "2026-07-12 19:25:24", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.86, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 bitcoin moved -3.3% ($64,156 \u2192 $62,043)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-13 20:21:59", "chain_hash": "f94364d6789f60a502aae55be4e4cccf2d904d53540b58a9b8a0288b303d91b2", "chain_tx": "3BNdT3R54gHz8WtRUyDrrtscqcS8mdvdiU2e6DDD4y7fhiydYMfVorNeW3X3HSvtWGyxmrj6tA4uh2asPAzHHxXf", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}