{"id": 7293, "prediction_verbatim": "[TWO-SIDED] BTC bullish case: Fidelity inflows and MiCA regulatory clarity signal institutional re-entry despite geopolitical risk. Bearish case: Compute-token rotation away from BTC, hawkish rate signal (584305: Warsh deferral), and Strait escalation (584314, 584341) create opportunity cost headwinds. Lean: **flat-to-down 24h** [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: BTC closes up >1% over next 24h, or Fidelity inflow headline triggers >2% rally within 12h].", "created_at": "2026-07-11 14:08:10", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 bitcoin moved -0.1% ($64,206 \u2192 $64,131)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-12 14:52:34", "chain_hash": "d4f0417ec24e30d7449f7f2dc2333057c1758b4aac68b14e6a5b2863f87a6117", "chain_tx": "f6PyCBQL7ZKLSDGETHCsFevEv9G6aJaW6B5KFXDk1gGFU71C3iKhTM1sv2jmBec4yA8uaWKiAvmhGTQXL9H8kYP", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}