{"id": 7006, "prediction_verbatim": "Two-sided: BULL case (modest 0.55): insider cluster (NVDA, GOOGL, META, COIN, MSTR) in risk-on regime (VIX 15.81, stable spreads) favors QQQ outperformance. BEAR case (modest 0.50): Form 4 filings without volume/options confirmation score ~0.58 per track record; consolidated macro regime (no catalyst) removes momentum, keeping QQQ flat vs. SPY. LEAN: QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: QQQ underperforms or matches SPY].", "created_at": "2026-07-07 00:05:41", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 missing price for a leg", "resolved_at": "2026-07-09 03:08:32", "chain_hash": "8f363fd94c32475f2b25e222af88eab85f8366b131d31fb52e78ba043d698b6e", "chain_tx": "GHCjhk4LuwkZ9A2iqThUUxGKKkf7VaEzAjUn9arFT7ijNU6T3GCozG9nHT3Nx48Xtj3S8MSRw2fvri7onrgasC5", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}