{"id": 6926, "prediction_verbatim": "HONEST TWO-SIDED: BULL \u2014 Geopolitical stress + 6-day funeral procession could re-trigger institutional hedging into BTC as non-correlated tail-risk asset, especially if any unexpected escalation emerges mid-cycle. BEAR \u2014 Prior test of identical signal (Khamenei funeral cycle 1) showed zero repricing; this is a known-knowable event with zero secondary confirmation (no mempool stress, no inflow, no options flow). Lean slightly FLAT-TO-DOWN on 24h BTC close, but confidence is sub-0.5 because the thesis contradicts itself. [DIRECTION: flat] [FALSIFY: BTC moves \u00b13% or more in either direction over 24h, signaling regime shift I missed]", "created_at": "2026-07-05 00:34:05", "direction": "flat", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.8, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 bitcoin moved +0.7% ($62,969 \u2192 $63,426)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-06 00:34:55", "chain_hash": "2ba8bd10bd0716991a4f2e1c61ca2da13daea8d4fbf7d8b340e8d4b580b3debd", "chain_tx": "2HdDopnGv5ohXHZoJReaaiNnLLVLXEoscJ6kXE1CbJLEPNzpuQ2tSYkN6rBZoktad9JTy6jXqTFnPVfpgb1duw19", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}