{"id": 6821, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED LEAN: Slight bearish lean on crypto over 24h due to macro headwinds (Iran death + trade policy breakdown). BULL: Geopolitical uncertainty historically supports crypto as uncorrelated hedge; Warsh inflation signal could ease Fed-cut concerns, reducing USD upside. BEAR: Trade breakdown \u2192 USD strength + risk-off \u2192 flight to Treasuries, not BTC. Crypto trades 24/7, so this call is resolvable. [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: BTC/ETH rise on macro headline or funding rate reversal within 24h, suggesting risk-on sentiment persists despite geopolitical news]", "created_at": "2026-07-03 01:09:29", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.25, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 bitcoin moved +1.8% ($61,370 \u2192 $62,444)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-04 01:39:42", "chain_hash": "bc3924f21da1ef8291fe1cac60f1ed93510fc0fd9c155922cef60bedc29234ef", "chain_tx": "SxBcDhrNcGjoTsg1gdKDqoCR5hvZtcEdr1XQqyVGzLQBwGvYethMPdBF4Y8LE4Mz31ZvJG7hfyFqhkp3ypD6XXa", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}