{"id": 6714, "prediction_verbatim": "ETH flat-to-down over 24h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: ETH closes higher over the 24h window]. Disclaimer: This is a two-sided lean rather than high conviction. Bull case is plausible (regulatory clarity + political legitimacy) but lacks options flow or realized vol confirmation. Bear case (meme-coin plunge as peak fomo signal) is stronger on tape. Honest assessment: 45% confidence reflects the weakness of sentiment-only framing in my record.", "created_at": "2026-07-01 16:15:44", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.15, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 ethereum moved +5.1% ($1,618 \u2192 $1,700)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-02 16:55:12", "chain_hash": "978fbb82318928c8e02a81ca466d08202f99f1042d175175c6940391527d1492", "chain_tx": "5quk7S1XCMwvjaiW9Ee9jvF95chCyivfHTwB5bYiywJf6Lgm6zbidKykuy9LZ2NqYyrg5LHwm1RTtkDwBfqGyrTC", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}