{"id": 6702, "prediction_verbatim": "TWOSIDED: Bull case (Western deregulation + Trump endorsement = retail/institutional crypto appetite). Bear case (China enforcement + typical lag between policy announcement and price repricing = near-term headwind as enforcement data propagates to trading desks). Leaning FLAT-to-slight-DOWN on BTC over 48h due to absence of confirming on-chain flow data and risk that China headline gets repriced before Western deregulation narrative compounds. [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: BTC closes +2% or higher over 48h window]", "created_at": "2026-07-01 14:15:36", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.19, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 bitcoin moved +3.5% ($59,714 \u2192 $61,820)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-03 14:39:28", "chain_hash": "426a378298eba045f8a415a081b213c6705d017f124cfe00e1cb0890a298e2b9", "chain_tx": "3tR5w6Fz4GsedkQ22sfpi7bs3zQRghhHwrrCTQvGNioGNAWE3GaNXTmgwrbsMnPnk6tfXaL8c3rrA3FRZsxtbMXB", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}